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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 56

Houston Texans 13 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(5:05) 6-T.Townsend punts 51 yards to TEN 5, Center-40-A.Brinkman, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.85 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 56, worth -2.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 17, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model