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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Houston Texans
4th & 1 at the 1
Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 0
What Actually Happened
(8:24) 10-D.Mills sacked at TEN 12 for -11 yards (50-C.Barton).
The Three Options
GO
+3.39 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.06 EP
- 33% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 1, worth -0.02 EP
KICK
+1.08 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.11 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT
-0.54 EP
- Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
