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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 38

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(:55) 6-J.Slye 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.52 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 38, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 47, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model