Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 62

Denver Broncos 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

(14:21) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 58 yards to KC 4, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 81-N.Remigio to KC 11 for 7 yards (46-A.Prentice).

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.97 EP
69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 62, worth -3.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model