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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2025-11-16 · 16:25 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

KC
55.7%
DEN
44.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.125 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • KC on 4 more days rest than DEN
  • KC defense: -0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Bo Nix (DEN) +0.102 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.169 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

KC 25
–
DEN 20
Projected margin: KC by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

KC

Isiah Pacheco RB Out Knee

DEN

Alex Singleton LB Out Illness
J.K. Dobbins RB Out Foot
Pat Surtain II CB Out Pectoral
Nate Adkins TE Out Knee
Jonah Elliss LB Out Hamstring
Garret Wallow LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 19
–
DEN 22

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:39 FG DEN (7:39) 3-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. KC 0 – DEN 3
  • Q1 04:56 FG DEN (4:56) 3-W.Lutz 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. KC 0 – DEN 6
  • Q1 00:52 FG KC (:52) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. KC 3 – DEN 6
  • Q2 04:41 FG KC (4:41) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. KC 6 – DEN 6
  • Q3 04:11 TD DEN (4:11) 38-J.McLaughlin up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-95-C.Jones, Defensive Offside, declined. KC 6 – DEN 12
  • Q3 00:57 TD KC (:57) 29-K.Hunt left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 12 – DEN 13
  • Q4 12:54 FG DEN (12:54) 3-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. KC 13 – DEN 16
  • Q4 10:04 TD KC (10:04) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 19 – DEN 16
  • Q4 04:15 FG DEN (4:15) 3-W.Lutz 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. KC 19 – DEN 19
  • Q4 00:03 FG DEN (:03) 3-W.Lutz 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. KC 19 – DEN 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 9 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (7:39) 3-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 10 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:38) 14-M.Araiza punts 52 yards to DEN 9, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at KC 21 for 70 yards (30-C.Roland-Wallace). PENALTY on KC-38-K.Knowles, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 21.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (4:56) 3-W.Lutz 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 9 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

    (:52) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 12 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (14:21) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 58 yards to KC 4, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 81-N.Remigio to KC 11 for 7 yards (46-A.Prentice).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 3 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 96%

    (4:41) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:11) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 44 yards to KC 10, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 8 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (1:54) 14-M.Araiza punts 61 yards to DEN 27, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (:37) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 52 yards to KC 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 81-N.Remigio to KC 24 for 12 yards (26-D.Key).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 6 at the 59
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 44%

    (:02) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 32 for -9 yards (29-J.McMillian).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 11 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 92%

    (12:54) 3-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 7 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (8:18) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 57 yards to KC 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 2 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 65%

    (6:41) 14-M.Araiza punts 59 yards to DEN 21, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-M.Mims ran ob at DEN 45 for 24 yards (54-L.Chenal).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 36 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 68%

    (4:15) 3-W.Lutz 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.