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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 12

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(4:41) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +2.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.11 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 12, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP