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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 54

Denver Broncos 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

What Actually Happened

(3:11) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 44 yards to KC 10, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.93 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 54, worth -2.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 16, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model