Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 88

Kansas City Chiefs 6 – Denver Broncos 6

(1:54) 14-M.Araiza punts 61 yards to DEN 27, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.76 EP
57% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 88, worth -4.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model