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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 64

Denver Broncos 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

What Actually Happened

(:37) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 52 yards to KC 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 81-N.Remigio to KC 24 for 12 yards (26-D.Key).

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.17 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 64, worth -2.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 22, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP