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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 80

Kansas City Chiefs 19 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(6:41) 14-M.Araiza punts 59 yards to DEN 21, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-M.Mims ran ob at DEN 45 for 24 yards (54-L.Chenal).

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.08 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 80, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 37, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP