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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 6

Denver Broncos 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(4:56) 3-W.Lutz 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +2.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.45 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 6, worth +0.35 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP