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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 85

New York Jets 7 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 14-A.McNamara punts 44 yards to NE 41, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.56 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 85, worth -4.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.19 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 43, worth -2.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP