Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- NYJ offense: -0.140 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- NE offense: +0.112 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
- Drake Maye (NE): +0.193 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- NE defense: -0.073 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- NYJ defense: +0.073 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 11
NYJ
NE
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:01 TD NYJ (7:01) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – NE 0
- Q2 14:23 TD NE (14:23) 32-T.Henderson left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 7 – NE 6
- Q2 07:58 TD NE (7:58) 77-B.Brown reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 7 – NE 13
- Q3 07:51 TD NE (7:51) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 32-T.Henderson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 7 – NE 20
- Q3 03:17 TD NYJ (3:17) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass deep left to 3-J.Metchie for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 13 – NE 21
- Q4 12:11 FG NE (12:11) 36-A.Borregales 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NYJ 14 – NE 24
- Q4 06:38 FG NE (6:38) 36-A.Borregales 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NYJ 14 – NE 27
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 NE 4th & 2 at the 38Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 61% p(FG) 60%
(3:56) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas to NYJ 31 for 7 yards (21-B.Stephens).
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51%
(12:52) 14-A.McNamara punts 45 yards to NE 17, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(6:14) 14-A.McNamara punts 41 yards to NE 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.
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Q2 NE 4th & 8 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(3:31) 17-B.Baringer punts 56 yards to NYJ 14, Center-47-J.Ashby. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 31 for 17 yards (41-B.Schooler). PENALTY on NYJ-35-D.Clark, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at NYJ 14.
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 85Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EPp(convert) 61%
(1:55) 14-A.McNamara punts 44 yards to NE 41, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.
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Q3 NE 4th & 7 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(14:17) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to NYJ 13, Center-47-J.Ashby. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 32 for 19 yards (91-E.Ponder).
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Q4 NE 4th & 13 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 85%
(12:11) 36-A.Borregales 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(9:17) 14-A.McNamara punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.
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Q4 NE 4th & 15 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(7:43) 17-B.Baringer punts 47 yards to NYJ 16, Center-47-J.Ashby. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 15 for -1 yards (22-C.Woods).
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Q4 NE 4th & 7 at the 8Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EPp(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%
(6:38) 36-A.Borregales 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 15 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 95%
(2:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass incomplete short right to 89-J.Ruckert (24-D.Pettus).