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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 13 at the 26

New England Patriots 21 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(12:11) 36-A.Borregales 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.07 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 26, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 36, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model