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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 8

New England Patriots 24 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(6:38) 36-A.Borregales 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +2.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.33 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 8, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP