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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 62

New York Jets 7 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(12:52) 14-A.McNamara punts 45 yards to NE 17, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.54 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 62, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 21, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model