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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 30

San Francisco 49ers 19 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(1:06) 18-E.Pineiro 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.73 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 40, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model