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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
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Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
Sunday 2025-11-16 · 16:05 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

SF
52.0%
ARI
48.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to SF: Jacoby Brissett (ARI) -0.043 vs Brock Purdy (SF) +0.173 EPA/dropback (SF starting Brock Purdy in place of Mac Jones)
  • SF defense: +0.142 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • SF offense: +0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • ARI defense: +0.050 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

SF 24
–
ARI 23
Projected margin: SF by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

SF

Deommodore Lenoir CB Questionable Calf

ARI

Mack Wilson LB Out Ribs
Jonah Williams T Out Shoulder
Baron Browning LB Out Concussion
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR Out Illness
Dadrion Taylor-Demerson S Out Ankle
Hayden Conner G Out Knee
Will Johnson CB Out Back
Kelvin Beachum T Questionable Not injury related - resting player
Will Hernandez G Questionable Knee
Bam Knight RB Questionable Ankle
BJ Ojulari LB Questionable Knee
Darius Robinson DT Questionable Groin
Walter Nolen DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 41
–
ARI 22

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 14:47 TD SF (14:47) 23-C.McCaffrey right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – ARI 0
  • Q1 09:57 TD SF (9:57) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 85-G.Kittle for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-W.Nolen]. SF 13 – ARI 0
  • Q1 05:03 TD ARI (5:03) 78-J.Fryar reported in as eligible. 20-Z.Knight left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 13 – ARI 6
  • Q2 13:44 TD SF (13:44) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 19 – ARI 7
  • Q2 06:34 FG ARI (6:34) 38-C.Ryland 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-P.O'Donnell. SF 19 – ARI 10
  • Q2 01:06 FG SF (1:06) 18-E.Pineiro 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. SF 22 – ARI 10
  • Q2 00:00 FG SF (:00) 18-E.Pineiro 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. SF 25 – ARI 10
  • Q3 07:32 FG SF (7:32) 18-E.Pineiro 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. SF 28 – ARI 10
  • Q3 02:37 TD SF (2:37) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 34 – ARI 10
  • Q4 08:32 TD ARI (8:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-T.McBride for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 35 – ARI 16
  • Q4 04:49 TD SF (4:49) 23-C.McCaffrey right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 41 – ARI 16
  • Q4 02:48 TD ARI (2:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 4-G.Dortch for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 41 – ARI 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 10 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:09) 39-P.O'Donnell punts 31 yards to SF 30, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-25-Z.Collins.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 10 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:03) 7-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to ARI 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 4-G.Dortch to SF 44 for 40 yards (59-C.Robinson; 46-J.Weeks).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 6 at the 40
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 62%

    (1:00) 38-C.Ryland 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (6:34) 38-C.Ryland 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 5 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 55%

    (5:23) 7-T.Morstead punts 35 yards to ARI 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by SF-33-S.Neal.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 2 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 66%

    (2:59) 39-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to SF 39, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 9-S.Moore.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 82%

    (1:06) 18-E.Pineiro 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 10 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:45) 39-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to SF 23, Center-46-A.Brewer. 9-S.Moore to SF 32 for 9 yards (25-Z.Collins).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 18 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 84%

    (7:32) 18-E.Pineiro 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 2 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 66%

    (11:59) 7-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to ARI 34, Center-46-J.Weeks. 4-G.Dortch to SF 44 for 22 yards (88-J.Tonges). SF-57-L.Gifford was injured during the play. PENALTY on ARI-45-J.Deguara, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 45.