Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 69

Arizona Cardinals 10 – San Francisco 49ers 25

(12:45) 39-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to SF 23, Center-46-A.Brewer. 9-S.Moore to SF 32 for 9 yards (25-Z.Collins).

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.32 EP
63% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model