Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 61

Arizona Cardinals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(12:09) 39-P.O'Donnell punts 31 yards to SF 30, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-25-Z.Collins.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.23 EP
64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model