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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 13 at the 21

Miami Dolphins 3 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(11:30) 47-R.Patterson 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.40 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 31, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model