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Washington Commanders

HC Dan Quinn
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Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
Sunday 2025-11-16 · 09:30 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

WAS
53.0%
MIA
47.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • WAS offense: +0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.213 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.055 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 23
–
MIA 22
Projected margin: WAS by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

WAS

Will Harris S Out Ankle
Terry McLaurin WR Out Quadricep
Treylon Burks WR Out Finger
Drake Jackson DE Out Knee
Jayden Daniels QB Out Elbow
Ben Sinnott TE Out Ankle
Ale Kaho LB Out Concussion
Jordan Magee LB Questionable Knee

MIA

Austin Jackson T Doubtful Toe
Rasul Douglas CB Questionable Foot
Bradley Chubb LB Questionable Foot
Dee Eskridge WR Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 13
–
MIA 16

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:39 FG MIA (10:39) 47-R.Patterson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey. WAS 0 – MIA 3
  • Q1 02:40 FG WAS (2:40) 16-M.Gay 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. WAS 3 – MIA 3
  • Q2 11:30 FG MIA (11:30) 47-R.Patterson 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey. WAS 3 – MIA 6
  • Q2 00:03 FG WAS (:03) 16-M.Gay 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. WAS 6 – MIA 6
  • Q3 11:32 TD WAS (11:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 1-D.Samuel for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 12 – MIA 6
  • Q4 12:38 TD MIA (12:38) 64-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 31-O.Gordon right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – MIA 12
  • Q5 07:37 FG MIA (7:37) 47-R.Patterson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey. WAS 13 – MIA 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 6 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 84%

    (10:39) 47-R.Patterson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (7:26) (No Huddle) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 80-C.Yankoff to 50 for 4 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 7 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (2:40) 16-M.Gay 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 13 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 92%

    (11:30) 47-R.Patterson 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 16 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 76%

    (7:35) 16-M.Gay 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 17 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (5:45) 16-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to WAS 11, Center-49-J.Cardona. 83-J.Lane ran ob at WAS 18 for 7 yards (27-E.Bonner). PENALTY on WAS-35-P.Butler, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 11.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 5 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 96%

    (:03) 16-M.Gay 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 99%

    (6:09) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short left to 17-J.Waddle (54-B.Wagner).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 8 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (2:57) 10-T.Way punts 41 yards to MIA 44, Center-69-T.Ott. 6-M.Washington to MIA 47 for 3 yards (56-K.Medrano).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (6:06) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short left to 86-Z.Ertz. ** Injury Update: WAS-76-S.Cosmi has returned to the game.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 19 at the 87 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:21) 16-J.Bailey punts 51 yards to WAS 36, Center-49-J.Cardona. 0-M.Sainristil MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIA-27-E.Bonner at WAS 42.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%

    (1:44) 64-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 31-O.Gordon up the middle to WAS 3 for -2 yards (97-E.Goldman, 4-F.Luvu).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 8 at the 38 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 65%

    (:15) 16-M.Gay 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.