Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 17 at the 66

Miami Dolphins 6 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(5:45) 16-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to WAS 11, Center-49-J.Cardona. 83-J.Lane ran ob at WAS 18 for 7 yards (27-E.Bonner). PENALTY on WAS-35-P.Butler, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 11.

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.68 EP
70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model