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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 12

Washington Commanders 3 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(:03) 16-M.Gay 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +2.97 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 12, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 22, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model