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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 2

Miami Dolphins 6 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(6:09) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short left to 17-J.Waddle (54-B.Wagner).

The Three Options

GO +3.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.80 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 2, worth +0.54 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.51 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model