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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 28

Miami Dolphins 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:39) 47-R.Patterson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.79 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 28, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 38, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model