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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 85

Washington Commanders 13 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(2:57) 10-T.Way punts 41 yards to MIA 44, Center-69-T.Ott. 6-M.Washington to MIA 47 for 3 yards (56-K.Medrano).

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.73 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 85, worth -5.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 43, worth -2.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model