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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 1

Washington Commanders 13 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(6:06) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short left to 86-Z.Ertz. ** Injury Update: WAS-76-S.Cosmi has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +3.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.69 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 1, worth +0.20 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model