Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 19 at the 87

Miami Dolphins 13 – Washington Commanders 13

(4:21) 16-J.Bailey punts 51 yards to WAS 36, Center-49-J.Cardona. 0-M.Sainristil MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIA-27-E.Bonner at WAS 42.

The Three Options

GO -2.98 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.14 EP
70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 87, worth -4.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model