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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 54

Washington Commanders 0 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(7:26) (No Huddle) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 80-C.Yankoff to 50 for 4 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.35 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 54, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 16, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model