4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 13 at the 49

New Orleans Saints 0 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(9:05) 32-K.Kroeger punts 35 yards to ATL 14, Center-49-Z.Wood. 14-J.Agnew to ATL 19 for 5 yards (43-M.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.81 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.44 EP
KICK -0.74 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model