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ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Raheem Morris
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Kellen Moore
Sunday 2025-11-23 · 16:25 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

ATL
49.7%
NO
50.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: -0.124 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • NO on 7 more days rest than ATL
  • Tyler Shough (NO): -0.037 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ATL offense: -0.023 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • ATL defense: +0.059 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ATL 22
–
NO 23
Projected margin: NO by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

ATL

Josh Woods LB Out Hamstring
Drake London WR Out Knee
Zach Harrison DT Out Knee
Billy Bowman Jr. CB Out Achilles
Malik Verdon LB Out Shoulder
Leonard Floyd LB Questionable Hamstring
Chris Lindstrom G Questionable Foot
Matthew Bergeron G Questionable Ankle

NO

Brandin Cooks WR Out Not injury related - personal matter
Barry Wesley T Out Hip
Alvin Kamara RB Questionable Ankle
Taliese Fuaga T Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 24
–
NO 10

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:47 FG ATL (10:47) 45-Z.Gonzalez 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 3 – NO 0
  • Q2 11:35 TD ATL (11:35) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle to 87-D.Sills for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 9 – NO 0
  • Q2 06:53 TD NO (6:53) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 8-K.Pitts INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Reid (4-K.McKinstry) at ATL 49. 21-J.Reid for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 10 – NO 6
  • Q2 02:00 FG ATL (2:00) 45-Z.Gonzalez 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. Penalty on NO-44-I.Stalbird, Defensive Offside, declined. ATL 13 – NO 7
  • Q2 00:04 FG ATL (:04) 45-Z.Gonzalez 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 16 – NO 7
  • Q4 12:17 FG NO (12:17) 19-B.Grupe 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. ATL 16 – NO 10
  • Q4 11:12 TD ATL (11:12) 18-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 1-D.Mooney for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 22 – NO 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 8 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:30) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to NO 31, Center-49-L.McCullough. 11-D.Pettis ran ob at NO 42 for 11 yards (23-D.Hellams; 25-T.Allgeier).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 9 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 67%

    (10:47) 45-Z.Gonzalez 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 15 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 92%

    (8:35) 19-B.Grupe 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 18 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:13) 13-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to NO 15, Center-49-L.McCullough. 11-D.Pettis to NO 17 for 2 yards (25-T.Allgeier). PENALTY on NO-31-J.Howden, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at NO 15.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (:28) 32-K.Kroeger punts 39 yards to ATL 23, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-43-M.Davis.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 13 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 39%

    (9:05) 32-K.Kroeger punts 35 yards to ATL 14, Center-49-Z.Wood. 14-J.Agnew to ATL 19 for 5 yards (43-M.Davis).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 10 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 90%

    (2:00) 45-Z.Gonzalez 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. Penalty on NO-44-I.Stalbird, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 4 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 84%

    (:56) 19-B.Grupe 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 30%

    (:34) Direct snap to 84-F.Franks. 84-F.Franks up the middle to ATL 49 for 2 yards (21-J.Reid).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 6 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 71%

    (:04) 45-Z.Gonzalez 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (7:38) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 7-T.Hill. 7-T.Hill pass incomplete short right to 14-D.Vele (36-R.Harrison).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 1 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (5:46) 13-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to NO 42, Center-49-L.McCullough. 11-D.Pettis to NO 41 for -1 yards (28-M.Ford).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 37%

    (3:40) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 7-T.Hill. 7-T.Hill left guard to ATL 48 for 2 yards (55-K.Elliss; 93-K.Street).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (14:19) 7-T.Hill right tackle to ATL 5 for 2 yards (56-L.Floyd).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 15 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 96%

    (12:17) 19-B.Grupe 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 14 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (9:32) 32-K.Kroeger punts 32 yards to ATL 37, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds. PENALTY on ATL-37-C.Bryant, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 37.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (5:03) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to NO 12, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 11-D.Pettis.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 15 at the 71 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 28%

    (3:34) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 11-D.Pettis to NO 43 for 14 yards (20-D.Alford).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 11 at the 43 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 55%

    (3:09) 13-B.Pinion punts 31 yards to NO 12, Center-49-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-40-J.Bertrand.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 7 at the 29 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.87 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 84%

    (:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left intended for 12-C.Olave INTERCEPTED by 31-X.Watts at ATL -8. Touchback.