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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 36

Atlanta Falcons 13 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(:04) 45-Z.Gonzalez 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.31 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 36, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -0.32 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model