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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 38

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(10:47) 45-Z.Gonzalez 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.93 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 38, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 47, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model