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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 89

Atlanta Falcons 16 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(5:46) 13-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to NO 42, Center-49-L.McCullough. 11-D.Pettis to NO 41 for -1 yards (28-M.Ford).

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.01 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 89, worth -5.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.65 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 46, worth -2.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP