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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 15 at the 15

New Orleans Saints 7 – Atlanta Falcons 16

What Actually Happened

(12:17) 19-B.Grupe 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
  • 23% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.70 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 15, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model