Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 14 at the 69

New Orleans Saints 10 – Atlanta Falcons 24

What Actually Happened

(9:32) 32-K.Kroeger punts 32 yards to ATL 37, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds. PENALTY on ATL-37-C.Bryant, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 37.

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.23 EP
71% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 69, worth -3.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model