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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 55

Atlanta Falcons 24 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(5:03) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to NO 12, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 11-D.Pettis.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.15 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 55, worth -2.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 16, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP