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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 15 at the 21

New Orleans Saints 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(8:35) 19-B.Grupe 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.76 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 31, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model