Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 18 at the 63

Atlanta Falcons 3 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(5:13) 13-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to NO 15, Center-49-L.McCullough. 11-D.Pettis to NO 17 for 2 yards (25-T.Allgeier). PENALTY on NO-31-J.Howden, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at NO 15.

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.71 EP
74% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 63, worth -3.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model