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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 72

Houston Texans 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(14:04) 6-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to BUF 29, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at BUF 37 for 8 yards (23-J.Reed). PENALTY on BUF-37-J.Hancock, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 29.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +2.12 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 72, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 30, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model