BUF @ HOU — 4th & Data

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HC Sean McDermott

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HC DeMeco Ryans

Thursday 2025-11-20 · 20:15 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread -5.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

BUF

55.7%

HOU

44.3%

🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

BUF offense: +0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
HOU defense: -0.181 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
QB edge to BUF: Davis Mills (HOU) -0.090 vs Josh Allen (BUF) +0.187 EPA/dropback
Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

BUF 25

–

HOU 23

Projected margin: BUF by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

BUF

Curtis Samuel WR Out Elbow

Mecole Hardman WR Out Calf

Dalton Kincaid TE Out Hamstring

Phidarian Mathis DT Questionable Shoulder

HOU

Jalen Pitre S Out Concussion

C.J. Stroud QB Out Concussion

Jamal Hill LB Out Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 19

–

HOU 23

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 09:19 TD BUF (9:19) 4-J.Cook right tackle for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – HOU 0
Q1 04:36 FG HOU (4:36) 15-K.Fairbairn 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. BUF 6 – HOU 3
Q2 09:39 FG BUF (9:39) 15-M.Prater 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. BUF 9 – HOU 3
Q2 03:51 TD HOU (3:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 13-C.Kirk for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 9 – HOU 9
Q2 02:00 FG HOU (2:00) 15-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. BUF 9 – HOU 13
Q2 01:56 TD BUF 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 62 yards from HOU 35 to BUF 3. 22-R.Davis for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 15 – HOU 13
Q2 00:09 TD HOU (:09) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 81-J.Higgins for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: HOU-12-N.Collins has returned to the game. Penalty on BUF-39-C.Lewis, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. BUF 16 – HOU 19
Q3 00:21 FG HOU (:21) 15-K.Fairbairn 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. BUF 16 – HOU 23
Q4 05:48 FG BUF (5:48) 15-M.Prater 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. BUF 19 – HOU 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 HOU 4th & 4 at the 72

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 52%

(14:04) 6-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to BUF 29, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at BUF 37 for 8 yards (23-J.Reed). PENALTY on BUF-37-J.Hancock, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 29.
Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 72

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 74%

(12:46) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle to BUF 31 for 3 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair).
Q1 HOU 4th & 5 at the 5

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP

p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

(4:36) 15-K.Fairbairn 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Q1 BUF 4th & 4 at the 82

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 53%

(2:48) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 48 yards to HOU 34, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.
Q1 HOU 4th & 6 at the 62

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44%

(1:52) 6-T.Townsend punts 57 yards to BUF 5, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-34-A.Carter.
Q2 BUF 4th & 2 at the 37

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 59% p(FG) 69%

(11:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 26-Ty.Johnson ran ob at HOU 14 for 23 yards.
Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 24

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 68% p(FG) 89%

(6:56) (Shotgun) 27-W.Marks left tackle to BUF 18 for 6 yards (7-Ta.Johnson).
Q2 HOU 4th & 5 at the 25

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 88%

(2:00) 15-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Q3 HOU 4th & 16 at the 75

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(9:15) 6-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to BUF 19, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 10-K.Shakir to BUF 12 for -7 yards (33-D.Ogunbowale). PENALTY on BUF-39-C.Lewis, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at BUF 19.
Q3 BUF 4th & 11 at the 91

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(7:36) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to HOU 47, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.
Q3 HOU 4th & 7 at the 50

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 37%

(5:55) 6-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to BUF 8, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir.
Q3 HOU 4th & 7 at the 8

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

(:21) 15-K.Fairbairn 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 23

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 68% p(FG) 90%

(10:14) 4-J.Cook right guard to HOU 25 for -2 yards (90-S.Rankins).
Q4 HOU 4th & 9 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(9:21) 6-T.Townsend punts 47 yards to BUF 27, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 10-K.Shakir to BUF 38 for 11 yards (45-E.Speed).
Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 20

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 93%

(5:48) 15-M.Prater 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
Q4 HOU 4th & 2 at the 55 late-game

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP

p(convert) 61%

(2:57) 6-T.Townsend punts 41 yards to BUF 14, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 10-K.Shakir ran ob at BUF 18 for 4 yards (44-B.Brooks).
Q4 BUF 4th & 6 at the 22 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.35 EP

p(convert) 39% p(FG) 91%

(:24) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 5-J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by 2-C.Bullock at HOU 9. 2-C.Bullock to HOU 9 for no gain (5-J.Palmer). Penalty on BUF-13-G.Davis, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.