Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 11 at the 91

Buffalo Bills 16 – Houston Texans 20

(7:36) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to HOU 47, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

The Three Options

GO -3.20 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.54 EP
62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 91, worth -5.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model