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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 5

Houston Texans 0 – Buffalo Bills 6

What Actually Happened

(4:36) 15-K.Fairbairn 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.90 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 5, worth +0.40 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP