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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 72

Carolina Panthers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:13) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to SF 17, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-48-T.Incoom.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.45 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP