Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- SF defense: +0.142 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- QB edge to SF: Brock Purdy (SF) +0.166 vs Bryce Young (CAR) -0.013 EPA/dropback
- SF offense: +0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
- CAR defense: +0.127 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
- CAR offense: -0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 12
CAR
SF
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 06:23 TD SF (6:23) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 15-J.Jennings for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – SF 6
- Q2 02:32 FG CAR (2:32) 10-R.Fitzgerald 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. CAR 3 – SF 7
- Q2 01:04 FG SF (1:04) 14-M.Gay 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. CAR 3 – SF 10
- Q3 04:47 TD SF (4:47) 23-C.McCaffrey left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: CAR-94-A.Robinson has returned to the game. CAR 3 – SF 16
- Q3 00:55 TD CAR (:55) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 4-T.McMillan for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 9 – SF 17
- Q4 09:25 FG SF (9:25) 14-M.Gay 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. CAR 9 – SF 20
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CAR 4th & 3 at the 58Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EPp(convert) 55%
(3:50) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to SF 8, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.
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Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 47Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 73% p(FG) 42%
(12:24) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to CAR 44 for 3 yards (99-T.Wharton).
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Q2 CAR 4th & 2 at the 72Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EPp(convert) 64%
(8:13) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to SF 17, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-48-T.Incoom.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 7 at the 7Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%
(2:32) 10-R.Fitzgerald 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
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Q2 SF 4th & 10 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 82%
(1:04) 14-M.Gay 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 14 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(:25) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to SF 35, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 9-S.Moore.
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Q3 CAR 4th & 6 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 30%
(12:33) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.
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Q4 SF 4th & 6 at the 11Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 97%
(9:25) 14-M.Gay 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
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Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 68 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54%
(4:54) 7-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to CAR 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 34 for 6 yards (45-N.Martin).
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Q4 CAR 4th & 8 at the 39 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 62%
(2:47) 10-R.Fitzgerald 57 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
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Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 44 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72% p(FG) 49%
(2:00) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to CAR 41 for 3 yards (57-B.Martin-Scott; 98-D.Wonnum).