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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 29

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:04) 14-M.Gay 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.84 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 29, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model