Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 14 at the 79

Carolina Panthers 3 – San Francisco 49ers 10

(:25) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to SF 35, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 9-S.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.90 EP
67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 79, worth -3.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model