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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 11

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Carolina Panthers 9

What Actually Happened

(9:25) 14-M.Gay 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.72 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP