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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 68

San Francisco 49ers 20 – Carolina Panthers 9

What Actually Happened

(4:54) 7-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to CAR 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 34 for 6 yards (45-N.Martin).

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.39 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 26, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model